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Forecasts

ADVANCED ALGORITHMS

Load forecasting is critical for planning and optimizing operations for large energy systems on a dynamic basis.
As system complexity increases, the task of developing accurate forecasting models becomes increasingly difficult.
Precise forecasts are needed to have an accurate production.

Energy Opticon constantly develops the advanced algorithms, which build the foundation of the forecast calculation. The aim is to perfect the precision of the forecasts, not just under perfect conditions, but also in situations when measurements are faulty, late or missing. The result is a forecast that not only reaches very high precision, but also is also stable enough to function even when for example measurements are wrong or missing.

The accuracy of the production plans are highly dependent on accurate load forecasts, so this is something of high priority. We are using both statistical and AI methods and always strive to find the optimal solution for each specific forecast.

AI forecasts

The Forecast module includes high quality forecasts for:

  • Load forecasts – Basis for planning of the energy production
    • District Heating
    • DIstrict Cooling
    • Electricity
    • Gas
    • Steam
  • Prices – Electricity price forecasts for different spot markets and also for reserve power on the middle European market
  • Wind and Photovoltaic power – Load forecasts with different quality/price options
  • Weather – Energy Optima 3 is improving the weather forecast from weather institutes with online correction

SETUP AND PRESENTATION

The forecasts are calculated automatically with a frequency down to every 15 minutes and the horizon can be set according to the user’s needs.

The forecast setup is easy to work with and you can define as many forecasts as you need. There is a special tool for mathematical calculations and with this, you can for example calculate the water flow in the network based on load and water temperature forecasts.

The forecast presentation is flexible, with the possibility to present the forecast in a graph or a table.

ACCURACY AND FOLLOW-UP

The district heating load forecast in the Energy Optima 3 system contains advanced functions for forecast evaluation. This enables the user to compare the calculated forecast with load measurements, weather forecasts and weather measurements. Any deviations in the load forecast or the weather forecast precision are immediately revealed.

Forecast follow-up

As part of the service agreement between the user and Energy Opticon, the precision of the load forecasts is regularly monitored by Energy Opticons forecast experts. Any deviations or irregularities found by Energy Opticon are immediately pointed out to the user.

IMPORTS AND EXPORTS

For various reasons, it may be necessary to import calculated forecasts or data from other systems. Imports and exports can be fully automated via SSIS and advanced reports can be generated via SSRS.

DISTRICT HEATING/COOLING AND GAS LOAD FORECASTS

It is very important for the production planning that the forecasts are accurate. The forecasts are indata to the production planning. To get good results, the indata has to be good. When the district heating load forecast is fluctuating a lot, it is important to know exactly when to start a new boiler, and which boiler, in order to avoid unnecessary start and stop costs on the boilers.

Energy Opticon provides a very accurate district heating load forecast. The forecast is based on algorithms that are the result of many years of experience and developed in-house.

The forecast is calculated with 15 minutes interval (different intervals are possible). Therefore, Energy Opticon is able to provide continuous and current information to the planning staff, considering new conditions.

The district heating forecast can be used to manage the operation planning manually, or this can be done by using the production module in Energy Optima 3.

 

ELECTRICITY LOAD FORECAST

Predicting the electricity load required to meet the short-term, medium-term or long-term demand helps the utility companies to plan their capacity and operations. It is a central and integral process for production planning in order to reliably supply all consumers with the required energy, and for facility expansion in the electricity sector.

Demand pattern is very complex due to the deregulation of energy markets.

The software Energy Optima 3 operates with freely adjustable time horizons and has the ability to forecast the electricity load for all different types of load situations:

  • Forecasts for local grids,
  • Forecasts for online measured customers,
  • Forecasts for tariff customers with load profiles.

The qualitative and stable electricity load forecasts in Energy Optima 3 can increase the efficiency and revenues for the electrical generating and distribution companies.

The electricity load forecast is using an adaptive approach and is recalculated every 15 minutes. The forecast is continuously improved by using historical data together with current online measurements.

Discover Efficient Energy Solutions

Unlock the potential of your energy systems with Energy Opticon AB. Our advanced solutions empower you to optimize energy consumption, reduce costs, and enhance sustainability. Take the first step towards a more efficient future by exploring how our technology can transform your operations.