The Forecast module includes high quality forecasts for:
- Energy consumption (e.g Electricity, Gas, Steam, District cooling) – Basis for planning of the heat and electricity production.
- Electricity– Electricity price forecasts for different spot markets and also for reserve power on the middle European market
- Wind and Photovoltaic power – Load forecasts with different quality/price options
- Weather– Energy Optima 3 is improving the weather forecast from weather institutes
Additionally the user can create own forecasts and calculations using existing forecasts, factors or other mathematical functions. These forecasts can be used separately as well as a part of the optimization process in the Energy Optima 3 optimization system.
Energy Opticon constantly develops the advanced algorithms, which build the foundation of the forecast calculation. The aim is to perfect the precision of the forecasts, not just under perfect conditions, but also in situations when measurements are faulty, late or missing. The result is a forecast that not only reaches very high precision, but also is also stable enough to function even when for example measurements are wrong or missing.
Accuracy and evaluation
The district heating load forecast in the Energy Optima 3 system contains advanced functions for forecast evaluation. This enables the user to compare the calculated forecast with load measurements, weather forecasts and weather measurements. Any deviations in the load forecast or the weather forecast precision are immediately revealed.
As part of the service agreement between the user and Energy Opticon, the precision of the load forecasts is regularly monitored by Energy Opticons forecast experts. Any deviations or irregularities found by Energy Opticon are immediately pointed out to the user.
District heatING, DISTRICT COOLING AND GAS NETWORK load forecasts
It is very important for the production planning that the forecasts are accurate. The forecasts are indata to the production planning. To get good results, the indata has to be good. When the district heating load forecast is fluctuating a lot, it is interesting to know exactly when to start a new boiler, and which boiler, in order to avoid unnecessary start and stop costs on the boilers.
Energy Opticon provides a very accurate district heating load forecast. The forecast is based on algorithms that are the result of many years of experience and developed in-house.
The forecast is calculated with 15 minutes interval (different intervals are possible). Therefore, Energy Opticon is able to provide continuous and current information to the planning staff, considering new conditions.
The district heating forecast can be used to manage the operation planning manually, or this can be done by using the production module in Energy Optima 3.
Electricity load forecasts
The electricity load forecast is using an adaptive approach and is recalculated every 15 minutes. The forecast is continuously improved by using historical data together with current online-measurements.